Merz and Starmer weigh Israel action after Macron turns up heat

LONDON — Pressure built on the U.K. and Germany to toughen their stances on Israel after Emmanuel Macron said France would recognize the Palestinian state.

Leaders in London and Berlin are now seriously considering their own substantive action, despite the backdrop of conflicting domestic pressures — with a quarter of the population in Gaza facing famine-like conditions, according to a U.N. World Food Programme official.

“The time has come to end the war in Gaza,” the leaders of the U.K., France and Germany said in a joint statement Friday. The “most basic needs of the civilian population, including access to water and food, must be met without any further delay.” An expected call between the three leaders Friday was postponed until the weekend.

But while they are united on the urgent need for a ceasefire, any closer coordination remains difficult. Britain’s Keir Starmer and Germany’s Friedrich Merz have so far declined to follow suit on recognizing the state of Palestine — though both are searching for new ways to exert pressure on Israel. 

One way for Merz’s government to increase pressure on Israel would be a reassessment of blocking EU proposals to suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which provides for close ties on trade and other areas of cooperation.

The chancellor’s spokesperson told reporters Friday he is “prepared to increase the pressure if progress [on issues such as a ceasefire and humanitarian aid] is not made.”

The U.K. has already imposed sanctions on members of the Israeli government, but Starmer is facing growing demands — including from a cross-party group of over 200 MPs — to join France in backing recognition of Palestine.

Some believe Starmer’s caution is linked to his desire to maintain good relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is arriving in Scotland Friday on a visit to two of his golf courses. The U.S. has provided extensive military, financial and diplomatic support to Israel throughout the war.

While Berlin indicated it may be ready to follow through with concrete measures against Israel for the first time and Starmer seeks to catch Trump’s ear, the question remains whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will heed any of these diplomatic levers. 

Israel launched its attack on Gaza in October 2023, after an attack by Hamas militants on Israeli territory killed over 1,000 people. Nearly 60,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, according to local health authorities.

German leverage

The EU has struggled to make an impact since the conflict began — but if Germany decides to take bolder steps, it could unlock the bloc’s strongest measures yet against Israel.

Merz has already criticized Israeli actions in unusually strong terms for a German leader, but is now facing demands to match his rhetoric with action, including from his junior coalition partner, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Two senior SPD lawmakers this week called on Merz’s government to stop weapons exports to Israel and to join European efforts to suspend the EU’s association agreement with the country.

At a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, EU ambassadors discussed the Gaza crisis and four countries — including Germany and Italy — reiterated their opposition to taking action via the association agreement.  

That meant there would be a “blocking minority” able to prevent any penalty measures being approved in a vote of EU countries’ representatives in Brussels. 

Around 10 countries, including Belgium, Ireland, Spain and Luxembourg spoke in favor of at least partial suspension of the agreement with Israel at Wednesday’s meeting, according to an EU diplomat granted anonymity to speak candidly. 

The diplomat said a potential decision from Germany to allow the suspension of some measures under the association agreement would be “huge” and would tilt the balance in favor of action. 

“If Germany was looking at moving their position even slightly, that would be decisive,” the same person added, not least because Italy would likely follow, and because Berlin has been such a staunch ally of Israel thus far. 

 “If your best friend tells you you’re on the wrong track, that makes a much bigger impact than a stranger saying it.” 

Starmer under fire

Members of Starmer’s cabinet reportedly urged him to back recognition this week, at the same time as a cross-party letter calling on the government to grant recognition was signed by more than 200 MPs.  

One senior Labour MP claimed he is “much more cautious than almost anyone else in the party,” while another said he was increasingly “isolated” on the subject. 

Two senior figures in diplomatic circles said he was now also at odds with his own foreign office, where officials from the foreign secretary downwards have privately concluded it is time to take a stand. 

Starmer’s reluctance appears to be fueled in part by his aversion to doing anything which might revive accusations of Labour antisemitism, and his ingrained suspicion of anything which could be described as “gesture politics.” 

Maintaining good relations with Trump will also be high on Downing Street’s agenda, according to Peter Ricketts, the U.K.’s former national security adviser.  

He suggested Starmer would not move decisively before seeing Trump, who lands in Scotland Friday in order to visit two of his golf courses, and would be unlikely to give his full backing to statehood until after Trump makes his state visit in September. 

That could leave the door open to Britain recognizing Palestine at the U.N. General Assembly later that month.  

A second former high-ranking British diplomat agreed the prime minister would not want to “annoy” the Americans just ahead of an audience with Trump, following a year of concerted efforts to build good relations with the White House.  

Emily Thornberry, a Labour MP and chair of the U.K.’s foreign affairs committee, told POLITICO: “There is a long list of things we need to talk to him about, but if we have any capital with the White House we should be spending it on this.” 

Macron ups the ante

France meanwhile has focused its efforts on shoring up support for recognition of the state of Palestine.

Macron has been publicly flirting with recognition for months, but the timing of Thursday’s announcement appeared to take the French political and diplomatic establishments by surprise. 

“Even if we don’t talk about conditions, we have always said that we wanted to do it in a collective dynamic with other countries that are making gestures in favor of a rapprochement with Israel — even if it’s obviously complicated at the moment — and other countries that would also announce recognition of Palestine,” a high-ranking French diplomat said. 

Asked Friday about Macron’s announcement, Trump called the French president “a very good guy,” but added that “what he says doesn’t matter” and that his “statement doesn’t carry any weight.”