The global impact of Trump vs. Musk

Could Elon Musk’s online slapfight with President Donald Trump put a dent in his global telecom ambitions?

Musk’s satellite broadband company Starlink has reaped massive gains since he became “first buddy” to Trump. Numerous countries have cut red tape to approve Starlink this year, some reportedly under pressure from Trump’s State Department. In some cases, countries appeared to be giving Starlink a green light in order to ingratiate themselves with the White House.

Vietnam approved the service in February. In early May, the Democratic Republic of Congo granted Starlink a license. Later that month, South Africa eased laws that required telecom companies to provide 30 percent equity to groups that were historically marginalized — which could allow Starlink to start service without meeting the requirement.

Now, Musk’s feud with Trump raises the question of how Starlink will fare in future negotiations. Will countries feel the need to let it in? Will Trump go to bat for the company?

“When trade officials or when governments sit down for negotiations, you think about what horses you have to trade,” said a former Starlink executive, granted anonymity to speak freely. “I don’t even know if Starlink is a horse anymore.”

Since Trump took office, a number of countries have granted licenses to Starlink, including India on Friday. The State Department reportedly pressed some of those countries, like Gambia and Cameroon, to approve the service. (As of late March, Starlink said it had coverage in 130 countries or territories.)

Caleb Henry, director of research at the consulting firm Quilty Space, said U.S. diplomacy had helped Starlink get traction in hard-to-reach places.

“Starlink has already received market access in the easiest countries and the mid-tier countries,” he said. “What’s left is the hard countries. That’s where the State Department gets involved.”

Henry and other telecommunications veterans who spoke to DFD said this wasn’t necessarily unusual: The State Department often lobbies for U.S. companies, and in that sense, Starlink was enjoying the same support that Boeing or the satellite companies Iridium and Globalstar have received in the past.

Blair Levin, a telecoms expert who served in senior roles at the Federal Communications Commission under Democratic administrations, said he has seen an unconventional element in the State Department’s discussions over Starlink: They’re tying in the White House’s tariff policy as well.

Consider the case of Lesotho. According to The Washington Post, the landlocked African country was hunting for a way out of 50 percent tariffs announced by Trump. Then in April this year it granted Starlink a license.

According to the Post, the State Department noted that development in an internal memo: “As the government of Lesotho negotiates a trade deal with the United States, it hopes that licensing Starlink demonstrates goodwill and intent to welcome U.S. businesses.”

The State Department did not confirm or deny the report, but said, “Any patriotic American should want to see an American company’s success on the global stage, especially over compromised Chinese competitors.”

Starlink and the embassy of Lesotho did not respond immediately to questions about the report.

“Embassies often represent the interests of U.S.-based companies. That’s not unusual. But to tie tariff negotiations to certain companies, that’s very unusual,” Levin said.

Satellite policy expert Ruth Pritchard-Kelly concurred. “I can’t say I’ve ever seen a country begging the U.S. not to do something catastrophic, saying ‘look, we’ve even licensed your best friend’s satellite service, please don’t impose tariffs on us,’” she said.

So what now? If Musk remains on the outs with Trump, he could become a global liability for the company, Pritchard-Kelly said: “If Lesotho is actually worried about the U.S. imposing tariffs on them, then aligning themselves with this tech, which is currently run by someone who is persona non grata to Trump, could be a problem.”

So far, the Musk-Trump feud has largely played out online, and Trump has not followed up on his threats to cancel the government’s SpaceX contracts.

But Trump has other buttons he could push to make Musk’s life hard, said Pritchard-Kelly. One is withdrawing Starlink’s license to operate in space. “It’s never happened, but I think if Trump really wanted to rattle Musk he would say, ‘I’m going to pull your license,’” she said.

The former Starlink executive said the State Department — and the government more broadly — could also pose subtle obstacles to the company, such as by slow-rolling approvals or giving less weight to Starlink’s comments on federal policy. “There are other disadvantages that could come to Starlink or other Musk companies just because they’re no longer considered a favored son,” the person said.

In the longer term, Musk’s falling out with Trump is likely to spur other countries to keep investing in their own systems, according to satellite analyst Tim Farrar.

On Friday, top lawmakers in the European Parliament wrote to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, asking her to set aside €60B for space — including the EU’s IRIS2 satellite communications network.

“You’re going to have people who want to see IRIS2 going forward taking advantage of the risk of Musk threatening he could just decommission things at random,” Farrar said.

But it will be “years, if ever” before rival internet services have the muscle to match Starlink’s 7,000-plus satellites, he said, even as Chinese companies and Amazon’s Project Kuiper race to launch their own constellations.

“The State Department has to promote U.S. satellite interests over Chinese satellite interests,” Farrar added. “For the time being, Starlink’s the only game in town.”