The poisoned succession battle to rule Paris

PARIS — Emmanuel Grégoire should have had an easy campaign to succeed his former boss, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo.

But the pair’s very public political breakup is creating a major obstacle for the Socialist front-runner in the lead-up to the race to lead the French capital, which begins on Sunday.

Since their clash, Grégoire has conspicuously distanced himself from Hidalgo, and that has meant losing the opportunity to win votes by boasting about the successful Paris Olympics or the transformation of the banks of the Seine into a popular pedestrian area with cafés and restaurants.  

If Grégoire fails to extend the Socialists’ quarter-century rule of Paris, it would be a disaster for his party and further evidence of its weakness before the country’s presidential election next year.

“She did everything she could to torpedo my candidacy. I’m not her candidate and I am not her heir,” Grégoire said in a February interview with franceinfo. That’s a spectacular rupture for the man who was her principal deputy from 2018 to 2024.

The race is going to be close, giving the right its best opportunity in years to take control of the City of Lights — if it can unite around one candidate.

Grégoire and conservative former Culture Minister Rachida Dati are running neck-and-neck for the top spot in the polls. But an unprecedented five candidates could make the runoff on March 22, which would trigger a mad scramble for alliances. 

A bungled succession

So what happened between Hidalgo, the chief architect of the French capital’s green revolution, and Grégoire, her once-presumed heir?   

Over the summer, Hidalgo spurned his candidacy to support a lesser-known senator to succeed her as mayor. 

Grégoire still wound up winning the Socialist Party’s nomination, but the damage was done after Hidalgo publicly claimed that “the left would lose” Paris if her former deputy was its candidate. 

Three people familiar with their relationship, all granted anonymity to speak candidly, said things started to turn sour after Hidalgo’s failed 2022 presidential bid, in which she won a dismal 1.75 percent of the vote. 

With Hidalgo’s fortunes waning and Grégoire seemingly tapped as her replacement, things started to get “complicated,” an official in the Socialist Party said.  

“She has an authoritarian streak and was really hard on him,” the official said. 

This is a trait that has widely been remarked upon, and it earned her the nickname “Queen-Mayor.” It helped with short-term implementation of projects but now looks like it could have undermined her party in the long run, given some of the bad blood it has fomented.  

“You need toughness to succeed in Paris and transform the city,” said Gaspard Gantzer, a former Paris City Hall advisor. “Her style was a bit brutal, a bit cutting with others.” 

Hidalgo was then furious when Grégoire ran for and won a parliamentary seat representing Paris during the 2024 election, according to two of the three people familiar with the relationship.

One of Hidalgo’s allies said “they were both at fault,” as Grégoire became less supportive of her political ambitions and started pursuing his own agenda after the last presidential race. 

“It was a classic leader versus heir situation,” the Hidalgo supporter said.  

‘A different mayor’

Asked about the feud by POLITICO when unveiling his platform to reporters last month, Grégoire said he has fond memories of working with Hidalgo but stressed he would be “a different mayor” who would address “the new expectations” of Paris residents. 

Grégoire has instead tried to take a page out of Zoran Mamdani’s New York playbook, focusing his message on housing shortages and bringing down the cost of living. He’s also promised to “break with [Hidalgo’s] method.” 

While Grégoire hasn’t exactly broken through in the polls, the strategy could reap benefits given the Europe-wide anti-green backlash and Hidalgo’s reputation among resident of the capital. 

A poll from Ipsos published in December found that Hidalgo leaves office with a legacy that splits Parisians, even if they have come to love biking to work or enjoying more open space.  

The pace of change and Hidalgo’s disregard for her critics has made her divisive, even losing some support among those proud of the Olympics and Paris becoming a global showcase for urban transformation. Hidalgo’s missteps added to the resentment, whether that focused on ill-designed bike lanes, several abandoned urban forests or the endless redevelopment of the Eiffel Tower gardens. 

“She would make a huge announcement and then wait for her teams to comply,” said Paris urban policy expert Stephane Kirkland, who has worked for firms involved in Paris city projects. “It was a my-way-or-the-highway approach.”

Kirkland said that Grégoire’s campaign has clearly “internalized the new dynamic” against green issues and exasperation with Hidalgo. 

Grégoire “isn’t talking about anything green, even if his coalition includes green parties. He is really focused on social issues, security and cleanliness,” Kirkland said. 

Dati, the conservative challenger, has tried to seize on public dissatisfaction with City Hall by linking Grégoire to Hidalgo and accusing the duo of turning Paris into a dirty, disorganized, never-ending construction site. 

There are limits to that strategy, though. Not even Dati wants to reverse course on pedestrian zones like those on the banks of the Seine.  

Aitor Hernández-Morales contributed to this report.