Unregulated arms: The unchecked catalyst of global instability

From almost every corner of the globe, the world has watched, often in horror, as conflicts erupt and societal structures crumble under the weight of violence. We grapple with the interconnected evils of drug trafficking, human exploitation and the brutal reality of civilian casualties in war zones. Yet often overlooked in the analysis is the silent enabler of the utterly unregulated and unaccountable trade in arms.

While legitimate arms industries are subject to varying degrees of national oversight and international agreements, the illicit flow of weapons operates in a shadowy realm governed by greed and violence, with scant regard for borders or human life. This clandestine network, far from being a fringe concern, has a direct and devastating impact on some of the most pressing issues facing our world today, which, based on current trends, could be responsible for 630,000 deaths per year by 2030 — more than one life per minute. 

Before going into the details, it’s important to understand the endemic problem of illegal armed violence. In almost every major city around the world, the easy availability of small arms and light weapons transforms disputes into deadly confrontations. These weapons, often diverted from conflict zones, leaked from insecure stockpiles or manufactured in the black market, empower non-state actors and criminal organizations to terrorize communities and undermine the rule of law. Recent examples include the shooting of an eight-year-old girl as she sat in a car with her parents in a leafy suburb of London, through to formerly peaceful societies such as Sweden, where a surge in gang violence “has led to one of the highest homicide rates in Europe, with official data showing that fatal shootings have more than doubled in a year”, according to Euronews.

The insidious link between illegal arms and drug trafficking is equally undeniable, as clearly illustrated in a recent report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Firearms Programme and Flemish Peace Institute. Criminal cartels rely on a steady supply of weaponry to protect their operations, enforce their territories and intimidate rivals, with the profits generated helping to fuel the demand for more sophisticated and lethal arms, creating a vicious cycle of violence and corruption that destabilizes entire regions.

In terms of trade, the devastating reach of illicit weaponry continues to threaten initiatives aimed at fostering peace and stability — including the Kimberley Process (KP).

As a vital framework designed to eradicate conflict diamonds from the global supply chain, the KP relies on transparency and accountability. However, the presence of illegal arms in conflict zones remains one of the main contributors to undermining these efforts. Armed groups, fueled by illicit weapons, exploit diamond resources to finance their operations, perpetuating violence and undermining the integrity of the entire system. While the KP has directly reduced the volume of conflict diamonds out of the global supply chain from 15 percent to just under 0.2 percent,  the eradication of conflict diamonds cannot be fully realized while the free flow of illegal arms continues unchecked. It is also not reasonable for groups to suggest that the KP should be responsible for arms regulation or oversight, as highlighted in my recent article.

At the same time, it isn’t enough for individual nations to operate in silo, albeit the United Arab Emirates’ recent seizure of ammunition destined for the Sudanese Armed Forces successfully removed “approximately five million rounds” of Goryunov-type ammunition from the supply chain, as noted in a report by Emirates News Agency. Ultimately, the responsibility for restricting the flow of arms requires more than just a national effort, but a global tripartite structure, similar to that of the KP.

Consequently, and in the spirit of the KP’s Year of Best Practice, collaborations with entities including the United Nations-bound Arms Trade Treaty and the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms could represent a positive first step toward a more proactive, structured approach, particularly in achieving common goals. As an additional step, both entities could also consider adopting the KP’s tried and tested structure, including a unified approach that provides higher standards of monitoring, implementation and enforcement, as well as an institutional bridge to create a parallel dialogue on corporate accountability within the arms sector. In doing so, there is a unique opportunity to illustrate the negative impact small arms have on diamond-producing countries while holding the world’s arms exporters to account.

Beyond collaborating with global organizations such as the United Nations, the international community must recognize the illegal arms trade not as a peripheral criminal activity but as a central driver of global instability and human suffering. A concerted and coordinated global effort is urgently required to address this unseen scourge and should start by enhancing levels of international cooperation.

As an industry that has been grossly unregulated, particularly when benchmarked against commodities such as diamonds, it is time to bring the arms trade out of the shadows and into the light of global scrutiny. Accountability and decisive action will be required to reform our collective criminal justice systems and drive meaningful change toward reducing and eventually eliminating some of the world’s most egregious criminal practices.