Britain’s embattled prime minister is still in office. No one knows how long that will last.

LONDON — King Charles III will sit on a gilded throne in the U.K. parliament on Wednesday and announce a year-long legislative plan for “my government.” There’s one problem: he doesn’t know who’ll be leading it by Christmas.

His Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced an extraordinary five days since a mauling in mid-term elections: A make-or-break reset speech fell flat, more than 90 of his 403 MPs called for him to resign, four junior ministers quit and at least one Cabinet minister, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, privately urged him to set a timetable for his departure.

Yet Starmer remains ensconced in No. 10, and is not yet facing a formal leadership challenge after the most immediate threat failed to materialize. Labour ministers, MPs and officials who spoke to POLITICO attributed Starmer’s survival to two factors: Firstly, Labour is so riven with rival factions that no one can muster enough allies to make a decisive move, and secondly, no one wants to look bad in front of the king.

“Wednesday is a firebreak,” said one Labour official, granted anonymity like others quoted in this piece to speak frankly. “People will see that it’s disrespectful to [Buckingham] Palace — there will be a sense of duty around the monarchy that will kick in for some people.” 

A government official echoed the same point, noting: “You can’t make a fool of the king, can you?”

The sudden pause in intra-party hostilities comes after a whipsaw day in Westminster politics. Early Tuesday, the prime minister faced down his critics at a Cabinet meeting, refusing to allow discussion of his own leadership and declining a request by Health Secretary Wes Streeting — a key potential challenger — to meet in private immediately afterwards.

Streeting is instead due to meet Starmer on Wednesday morning to ask the prime minister how he plans to get the party out of its mess. An ally of Streeting said the health secretary would not make a statement after the meeting that might distract from the monarch.

Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy was urging colleagues Tuesday night to “step back, take a breath, remember that we have the king’s speech.” No wonder. People familiar with the matter told POLITICO that the king’s team had made clear to Starmer’s officials the importance of protecting Charles from any impression that he is being used for political ends in the Labour leadership fight. 

Charles, in words written by Starmer’s government, is due to announce more than 35 planned or draft bills including an immigration crackdown, health reform, digital ID, closer EU alignment and energy infrastructure. That whole agenda could all soon be junked by a different prime minister.

But no one quite knows if the full-blown leadership crisis will resume within hours or lie dormant for much longer.

The 90-plus MPs who have called for Starmer’s exit will never be able to un-say their statements. Starmer said the British people “expect the government to get on with the job of changing our country for the better” — but his own MPs increasingly believe that simply isn’t possible any longer.

One MP elected in 2024 said: “The trouble is even if he struggles on, we’re screwed … Keir basically knows that more than 90 people in his party think he’s doing a shit job.”

It’s all down to Wes now

The Labour fight is playing out after the party won a landslide in 2024 pledging to put an end to the parade of prime ministers that characterized the previous Conservative government. It should have been easy, since the Labour Party isn’t set up for swapping out leaders. While the Conservative Party’s rules allow MPs to trigger a no-confidence vote in their leader, Labour rebels must unite 81 MP nominees around one challenger to kick-start a contest.

As a result, Starmer’s refusal to go quietly and his Cabinet’s refusal to boot him out have led many MPs to a simple conclusion: Either Streeting launches a leadership challenge before momentum runs out — or there won’t be one for months.

Allies of Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister tipped to challenge Starmer from the left, have made clear that they would prefer to wait for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to attempt a return to parliament to ensure a fair contest. Rayner has praised Burnham and many MPs believe they could strike an alliance to the left of Starmer. Many left-leaning MPs also now prefer Burnham to Rayner.

Allies of Streeting, by contrast, argue that waiting months for Burnham’s return would render Starmer a lame duck and squander Labour’s chances to begin real change before an expected election in 2029.

Because both Streeting and Rayner have let it be known they do not want to move first — and Rayner is happy to wait longer — the timing appears to be in Streeting’s hands. A senior official in one rival camp taunted Streeting: “Wes bottles it more than Budweiser.”

One government official aligned with the PM said on Tuesday morning that Streeting needed to act fast or risk looking like a “busted flush.”

“Wes is using a lot of his ammo,” this person said. “A lot of his good people have gone already.”

Meanwhile, Burnham’s return is riddled with uncertainty. He needs to be approved by Labour’s ruling body, which blocked him from standing for parliament in January, and then win a by-election against the right-wing Reform UK or the Green Party.

Burnham’s allies have said privately for days that there is a plan for a specific Labour MP to resign and create a by-election in which he could run. But the MP’s name has still not been publicly revealed and no one has yet resigned.

POLITICO reported Monday that officers on Labour’s ruling body are backing away from the idea of blocking Burnham from running a second time. The 10 held a pre-planned meeting in London on Tuesday but one person with knowledge of it said the topic of Burnham did not come up. Another called him the “massive elephant in the room.”

Gridlock

All this has left Labour in gridlock — albeit temporarily. But MPs are divided on whether it will last for a day or far longer.

Senior figures in Rayner’s and Streeting’s camps lingered conspicuously in an otherwise quiet Portcullis House, parliament’s atrium, on Tuesday afternoon to test the mood.

Many of those who have called for Starmer to quit are allies of Streeting, including Health Minister Zubhir Ahmed, but others support Burnham, Rayner or no candidate at all.

“There is no rhyme or reason to the four [ministers] that have gone today,” one Labour official said Tuesday. “There’s nothing connecting them — faction, team, anything.”

The number of rumored alliances is becoming messy. Many MPs believe the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband would naturally align with Burnham, and there are suspicions in government that Mahmood and Streeting are teaming up. “You could see a situation where Shabana going over the top blunts the knife that Wes plunges into Keir’s back,” said one official.

One person who has talked to several camps added: “They’ve alighted on getting the prime minister out, but not aligned on a candidate.”

Downing Street has banked on this disarray to keep Starmer in office, and so far it is working. Lammy said outside No. 10: “No one seems to have the names to stand up against Keir Starmer.”

No. 10 has also banked on the economic fallout from Iran war — the focus of Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting — to keep Starmer in office. The cost of government borrowing surged on Tuesday as speculation about the PM’s future mounted.

Even on that topic, there was light dissent at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday. “Wes said something about how promising to lead people through the Iran crisis isn’t enough, but it wasn’t a challenge,” according to one person briefed on discussions. A Cabinet minister added that Streeting “made suggestions on how we lead the country through the Iran challenges,” though insisted that it was constructive.

Another person briefed on the meeting said there were raised eyebrows and shared glances while Streeting was speaking. 

The wartime context leads some to look in unlikely places. Defence Minister Al Carns is looking increasingly likely to go over the top, his allies say, despite only entering parliament in 2024 — but only if someone else challenges first.

One MP urging the special forces veteran to launch a bid said: “He is definitely open to running. He won’t be disloyal, but if someone fires a starting gun he is not shy of gunfire.”

‘Everyone is stuck in a frenzy’

The saga is taking an emotional toll on MPs already exhausted by months of drama. 

One MP who sent a jokey social media post saw both their phones immediately light up with calls at the same time. A Rayner ally was bombarded with texts from special advisers and journalists asking if a unsourced social media post claiming she was on her way to a joint press conference with Burnham was true.

A centrist MP elected in 2024 said: “Too many of my intake are inexperienced and don’t realize how harmful this is. It’s like soldiers going over the top at the start of World War One. Too many have over interpreted a nod and a wink from potential candidates, when there’s no plan.”

“Everyone is stuck in a frenzy,” said a second government frontbencher. “I hope, in the fullness of time, those who moved today will see the damage they’ve done and those who kept calm and advanced their views in private will be appreciated.

“No one’s thought about the healing. This is like a family fight and everyone has forgotten we will have to come back together again.”

Asked what would happen next on Tuesday night, another remaining government frontbencher shrugged, puffed out their cheeks and said simply: “I’m going for a beer.”

Emilio Casalicchio contributed reporting.