Republican voters skeptical of AI, poll shows, as Trump pushes deregulation

President Donald Trump is pushing to deregulate the artificial intelligence industry and make it easier for the technology to develop rapidly. His voters are not fully on board.

New results from The POLITICO Poll find that Trump voters are supportive of government oversight of the industry and split over whether the benefits of AI outweigh the risks, as the technology stokes fears of mass job loss, economic disruption and threats from China.

Only 13 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2024 said the federal government should stay out of regulating AI and let the market decide; about 3 out of 4 Trump supporters wanted the government to either impose strict regulations on the industry or set broad principles for companies to work out. They were torn on the necessity of AI development: 42 percent said the benefits outweigh the risks, another 42 percent said the risks outweigh the benefits and 16 percent said they didn’t know.

The threat of AI replacing human workers is also a major source of tension within the GOP: Trump supporters fear AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates, though non-MAGA Trump voters were more likely to say this (51 percent) than MAGA Trump voters were (42 percent).

The findings reflect that the technology is a growing concern for Republicans heading into the midterm election, posing a potential obstacle to the White House’s plans to enact a federal AI framework that advances Trump’s pro-industry priorities — a proposal that already faces Democratic opposition.

While Trump voters were generally more optimistic about AI and the Trump administration’s plans than those who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, they were still skeptical about letting the industry develop without government-imposed safeguards.

“Republican voters by and large are not buying this idea that no regulation is the optimal outcome here,” Dean Ball, a former White House adviser who served as lead author of the administration’s AI Action Plan, told POLITICO.

These tensions within the party are already spilling out publicly as Trump’s policy blueprint on AI, which focuses on deregulation and infrastructure expansion, clashes with state GOP leaders. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who opposes Trump’s efforts to preempt state AI laws, attempted to push forward a now-tanked AI “bill of rights” that sought to place safeguards on the sector.

This fissure is also on display in Utah, where the Trump administration told state Republicans it categorically opposed an AI safety bill that would have also placed transparency requirements on the industry. The White House’s opposition ruffled feathers within the MAGA sphere, causing some to question Trump’s Big Tech-friendly approach, which they attribute to former White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks.

“It’s disappointing to see an unelected federal bureaucrat discourage states from addressing issues that affect our own communities,” Utah Republican state Rep. Doug Fiefia, who introduced the bill, told POLITICO in March.

When it comes to who should set the regulations on AI, 59 percent of Trump voters believe the federal government should, while 24 percent said it should be left up to the states. Fifty-one percent of voters who backed Harris in 2024 believe the federal government should handle regulations, while 27 percent said it should be left to the states.

Multiple tech industry executives have warned AI could disrupt the labor market, saying lawmakers need to prepare the workforce as the technology advances. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has repeatedly warned of potential job losses, saying last May that he expects half of all entry-level white-collar jobs to be eliminated by AI within the next five years. Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, said in February that most white-collar jobs could be automated by mid-2027.

But the White House has largely focused on the need to beat China in developing AI, warning of the catastrophic risks if a key rival dominates the global AI market.

That’s exposed another rift within the GOP: 55 percent of MAGA Trump voters say the administration has done enough to ensure the U.S. leads the world on AI, while only 43 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters do. Meanwhile, 26 percent of people who voted for Harris in 2024 said Trump has done enough.

A 54 percent majority of non-MAGA Trump voters prioritize ensuring AI is safe and well-regulated, even if that means China develops faster. On the other hand, MAGA Trump voters were evenly split, 42 to 42 percent, over prioritizing AI is safe and prioritizing developing AI as quickly as possible to beat China, even if it means fewer safeguards.

Ball said this signals that Americans want more moderate outcomes. “They don’t actually want to shut the whole thing down,” he said.

The AI debate is also bleeding into the upcoming midterm elections, as super PACs representing the pro-innovation and pro-regulation camps are spending millions of dollars to back candidates in hopes of swaying Capitol Hill in their favor while lawmakers attempt to move forward on a federal AI standard.

Congress has been fraught with disagreement over how to tackle AI policy since the president released his AI Action Plan last summer. That fight spilled out publicly for the GOP after Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) tanked Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) push to tack a 10-year moratorium on AI state laws onto the One Big Beautiful Bill. Blackburn said Cruz’s provision would upend existing AI laws in Tennessee.

“Until Congress passes federally preemptive legislation … we can’t block states from standing in the gap to protect vulnerable Americans from harm — including Tennessee creators and precious children,” Blackburn said during a speech on the Senate floor last year.

Democrats have largely balked at safeguards they view as weaker than existing state protections, and many prefer to wait and see if they regain power in November before advancing AI legislation.

White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios said at an event in March that he’s holding out hope for advancing a federal framework: “It touches a lot of points that we’ve seen on both sides of the aisle, and we’re optimistic that we can try to get something done this year,” he said.