The POLITICO Poll: Starmer has failed to deliver the ‘change’ he promised

LONDON — Keir Starmer has failed so badly in his first two years as prime minister that his Labour Party is now widely seen as unelectable, no matter who ends up leading it.

That is the brutal assessment from The POLITICO Poll run by Public First, which questioned more than 2,000 people across the U.K. after last week’s local elections.

With the British prime minister clinging onto his job by a thread, only 6 percent of respondents said Labour had changed the country for the better as much as they’d hoped.

While 31 percent thought Starmer and his team had changed the country in the right way,
“but not enough,” more than half — 56 percent — said Labour has either not changed anything since winning power in 2024 or changed the country for the worse.

And a similar proportion — 53 percent — said Labour has no realistic chance of being re-elected whenever the next election comes. 

For Nigel Farage’s nationalist Reform UK party, by contrast, the verdict is dramatically more positive. Not only is Farage distinctly more popular than Starmer, his party is seen as more likely to succeed at handling key challenges facing Britain — and 65 percent of the public believe Reform now has “a real chance” of winning power.

The results suggest Farage’s Reform UK has broken through to become a far more credible political movement in the eyes of the public than it was shortly before the 2024 election. 

“The Labour Party ran on a promise of ‘change’ but very few people now feel they have delivered,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “They therefore have opened the door for Reform to claim that ‘change’ narrative for themselves.”

The poll comes as Starmer faces a concerted campaign to force him out of Downing Street from within his own Labour Party. After months of scandals and missteps, culminating in a dismal slate of election defeats in Wales, Scotland and across English local councils last week, Starmer’s own colleagues are plotting to replace him.

But the bad news for anyone who ends up taking over as prime minister is that the Labour party brand has been severely damaged, the polling suggests. 

Only 21 percent believe Labour can recover from its current slump with Starmer as leader, while almost one in three — 30 percent — believe the party won’t do so unless the prime minister is replaced. Even if Labour were to replace Starmer, 38 percent said the party would still not be able to revive its fortunes.

“Any new Labour leader would need to convince the public they’re offering something genuinely new,” said Wride. “Most of Labour’s remaining supporters already feel they took on an impossible task in 2024. From here, it looks tougher still.”

On a clutch of key challenges facing the U.K., Labour now trails Reform across the board.

When respondents in England were asked which party would “do the best job,” Reform beat Labour by 27 percent to 23 percent on improving the cost of living; by 48 percent to 19 percent on tackling illegal immigration; by 34 percent to 23 percent on dealing with crime; and by 25 percent to 23 percent on improving the economy. 

Even in areas such as international relations, where Starmer has won praise, Labour now lags behind Reform: by 28 percent to 26 percent on responding to the Iran crisis; and by 34 percent to 25 percent on dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump. 

The figures represent a dramatic reversal over the past two years. 

In May 2024, two months before Labour won power, Starmer’s party was beating Farage’s side on who would be better at handling the cost of living (Reform 8 percent, Labour 42 percent); tackling crime (Reform 10 percent, Labour 36 percent) and even immigration (Reform 16 percent, Labour 35 percent). 

“Before the 2024 election, Reform might have been disregarded as a protest vote,” said Wride. “Two years on, they are not only sweeping local elections, but topping polls on national issues. They have broken through as the credible party of the right.”

The POLITICO Poll by Public First surveyed 2,031 adults from May 8 to 11 across the U.K.