Von der Leyen to meet Trump on Sunday as EU-US trade deal comes into view

BRUSSELS ― European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet Donald Trump on Sunday to discuss trade ― as the U.S. president described the prospect of a deal with the EU as “50-50.”

“Following a good call” with Trump, “we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong,” von der Leyen said in a post on X on Friday.

Three weeks ago, the EU and U.S. almost agreed on a deal for a 10 percent baseline tariff, but Trump pulled the rug out by threatening 30 percent tariffs instead. A deadline of July 9 for Trump’s tariffs to kick in was moved to Aug. 1.

“I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU,” Trump told reporters at the White House before heading to the U.K. on a private visit, and where he’ll also hold talks with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

EU diplomats briefed on the matter told POLITICO they are expecting a 15 percent U.S. baseline tariff deal before Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline.

“Everyone is quite tense,” said an EU diplomat.

‘They kept coming back’

Trump announced tariffs on 60 trading partners in April, ranging up to 50 percent.

The U.S. president said any deal with the EU countries will have to be one where they “buy down their tariffs, because they’re right now at 30 percent.” In essence, that depends on how willing the bloc is to lower its barriers to American exports, Trump said.

If Trump blocks a deal now in the works, the EU is ready to retaliate, the European diplomats told POLITICO. One measure would be to impose tariffs on €93 billion worth of U.S. goods, which EU countries approved on Thursday.

Last year, the United States exported about $370 billion worth of goods to the EU. A large portion of those, along with some U.S. services exports, could be hit with the EU retaliation.

Still, Trump told reporters he was more optimistic about reaching a deal with the EU than he was about reaching a deal with Japan in the days before Washington and Tokyo reached an agreement last week.

“I would have said we have a 25 percent chance with Japan. And they kept coming back, and we made a deal,” he said.

Doug Palmer contributed to this report from Washington and Koen Verhelst and Jakob Weizman from Brussels.