NATO’s eastern flank braces for Russia’s war games

Russia’s neighbors are preparing for a nervous few days when the Kremlin holds its Zapad 2025 war games along with its ally Belarus, its first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The drills, running Sept. 12–16, will have some maneuvers taking place close to Poland and Lithuania as the Kremlin practices for a possible clash with NATO forces.

“We must take the exercises near NATO and EU borders seriously; both the bordering countries and NATO itself are treating them with the utmost seriousness,” said Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Tomas Godliauskas. “Lithuania and our allies are prepared, united, and will closely monitor developments, ready to respond if necessary.”

In response, NATO countries bordering Russia are holding their own war games.

Tarassis 25 involves 10 Northern European NATO countries, while Lithuania will hold its own Thunder Strike national defense exercise.

Poland holds its Iron Defender-25, with 30,000 troops taking part, this week. “Poland will respond to the Zapad 2025 exercises … in an appropriate manner on the Polish side,” Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk told Polish broadcaster RMF. 

Russia has been running Zapad exercises roughly every four years since 1999, and anxiety about them is something of a tradition. Although they are formally defensive drills, the one in 2009 simulated a nuclear attack on Warsaw and the 2021 exercise led to a massive buildup of forces in Belarus that were used months later to attack Ukraine.

With growing alarm in NATO that Russia might add to its ongoing war with Ukraine by attacking an alliance member — possibly in the Baltics — NATO is watching very carefully to see if Zapad gives any clues about a future Russian offensive, said Tomas Janeliūnas, professor at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science.

Western observers will use Zapad to gauge the readiness of the Russian military three years after it attacked Ukraine — a war that has cost Russia over a million casualties and destroyed vast amounts of equipment but also ramped up Russia’s war economy.

“NATO monitors Russia’s military activity very closely. We do not see any immediate military threat against any NATO Ally. Nevertheless, we remain vigilant,” the alliance said in a written comment.

Zapad organizers claim their drills will not exceed 13,000 personnel, and Belarus has said it is inviting observers from NATO countries as well as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

Russian and Belarusian troops will also practice planning to use Oreshnik nuclear-capable missile systems.

Russia is also running three other separate exercises with Collective Security Treaty Organization countries — masking the true size of the drills, said the German Council on Foreign Relations. (The CSTO includes Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.)

“The scenarios of these exercises are expected to indicate the type of warfare Russia is preparing for against the West,” it said.

The Zapad exercise will cover Russia’s Moscow and Leningrad military districts, the Kaliningrad exclave, the Arctic region, the Baltic and Barents seas and Belarus.

Some drills — near the Belarusian village of Gozha and in Kaliningrad’s Dobrovolsk — will take place just a few dozen kilometers from Poland and Lithuania. Troops will also be positioned on both sides of the Suwałki Gap, the 70-kilometer corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad widely seen as one of Europe’s most vulnerable defense bottlenecks.

Lithuania’s military intelligence expects that up to 30,000 soldiers will participate in Zapad— far less than in 2021, which saw around 200,000 soldiers take part.

That is far from what Russia would need to attack a NATO member, especially as the war in Ukraine is ongoing, Janeliūnas said.

Escalation risk

However, Moscow could use the drills to test NATO’s reaction to provocations such as airspace violations, cyberattacks or even sabotage of civilian infrastructure — gauging how quickly allies respond and whether they pin responsibility on Russia.

That raises the danger of escalation.

“It is entirely possible that certain coinciding signals could be interpreted as an actual attack on NATO countries,” Janeliūnas said. “One has to understand a simple fact: During military exercises, when weapons are ready … it is often difficult to distinguish simulation from real military action.”

But Godliauskas said Lithuania is capable of differentiating threats. “We have the ability to observe and respond, and to distinguish between an accident and a real threat,” he said.

Despite that, Godliauskas said, “it’s unrealistic to expect a zero probability of air incursions.” Two drones entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus in July, and the country recently closed its airspace along the Belarus border until Oct. 1.