Why Spanish businesses fear escalating clash with Trump

BRUSSELS — Spain’s business sector isn’t sure Donald Trump will chicken out.

While the country’s political class may be steadfast in its defiance against the U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran, its companies and regional leaders are scrambling to figure out what retaliation out of Washington would look like.

The fear is that a transatlantic rift between Washington and Madrid, which opened after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez refused to let U.S. military planes use jointly operated air bases on Spanish soil to attack Iran, could turn into a complete rupture. Earlier this week, the U.S. President and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened to cut all trade ties with the EU’s fourth-largest economy in retaliation.

It’s not supposed to be easy for the U.S. to bring economic pain to Spain. The EU functions as a barrier-free common market of 27 nations, a collective commercial entity that cannot be divided or fragmented with individual retaliation.

But Spanish businesses aren’t taking any chances, given how vulnerable the country would be to a U.S. trade embargo. The U.S. is Spain’s leading supplier of fossil fuels. Over 15 percent of the oil Spain imported last year came from the U.S., which also provided a record 44 percent of the country’s liquefied natural gas imports last January alone. Cutting off the supply of either would be devastating amid surging energy prices from the war in the Gulf.

Even though the U.S. accounts for less than 5 percent of Spain’s total global exports, suspending trade relations would have a serious impact on regions like the autonomous Basque Country, a major industrial player.

“Around 8 percent of our exports go directly to the States,” Ander Caballero, the Basque government’s head of foreign affairs, told POLITICO during an interview in Brussels. “We need to see how any change in policy would be applied, but anything affecting the energy or automotive sectors, or involving machine tools, steel, and aluminum would be a source of concern.”

Caballero noted that the region’s products were also part of larger value chains that involve large German, French, and British companies. “Even though the U.S. is only our fourth laregst trading partner, we could still be talking about a hit that could amount to €1 billion.”

Basque Country President Imanol Pradales this week convened an emergency meeting of the region’s “Industrial Defense Group,” made up of government figures, chambers of commerce and key sectoral and business leaders, to coordinate contingency measures against the commercial turmoil stemming from the Middle Eastern conflict.

The rapid-response task force was created one year ago with the mission of mitigating the regional impact of Trump’s tariff policies, which Pradales described as a “challenge unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.” This week marked the fourth emergency meeting of the group.

“The Basque Country cannot control the global geopolitical landscape, but we can react quickly to protect our industry,” Pradales said. “The time it takes us to react will determine the magnitude of the impact.”

The rush to prepare for the worst underscores Spaniards’ fear of the White House’s arsenal of economic weapons. So far, the most popular of these weapons has been trade tariffs. But Trump has also used sanctions to deprive his dissenters from using American credit cards and cut off countries like Iran from the world’s reserve currency.

Bessent has no qualms with weaponizing the U.S. dollar, either. Earlier this year, he told POLITICO that sanctions and limits on access to the greenback enabled Washington to influence other countries’ policies “without firing bullets.”

That’s of particular concern to banks, such as Spain’s largest lender, Santander, which last month agreed to acquire the U.S.’s Webster Financial Corporation, a second-tier bank. The $12.2 billion deal could catapult Santander into the top 10 American retail and commercial lenders. At the very least, a breakdown in commercial relations between Madrid and Washington could make it harder to secure necessary regulatory approvals.

Santander Executive Chairman Ana Botín sought to calm shareholders on Wednesday, insisting that it was key to “look to the medium term.” While acknowledging that the current situation was “extraordinary,” she downplayed the clash, saying: “trade continues and is very strong.”

“Spain and the U.S. have had an amazing relationship, forever, for centuries,” Botín told  Bloomberg TV, alluding to the Spanish crown’s financial support for George Washington in the American War of Independence, the 250th anniversary of which is being observed this year. “The long-term relationship is strong.”

Yet another TACO?

Of course, it’s entirely possible that Trump’s vow to cut ties with Spain will never materialize. According to market lore, whenever the risk of self-inflicted economic pain outweighs political rhetoric, “Trump always chickens out” — or TACO .

None of the higher tariffs he threatened to impose on Sweden, Norway, Germany, Finland, France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands for their participation in military training exercises in Greenland has been implemented.

Neither has the 200 percent tariff on French wine and champagne that Trump swore he’d impose on Paris after French President Macron declined to join the Board of Peace scheme to rebuild Gaza. And Madrid is still waiting to hear about the higher tariffs the U.S. president promised to use to punish Sánchez for his refusal to commit 5 percent of Spain’s GDP to military spending.

Sánchez this week insisted that, no matter what Trump threatens, Spain will continue to oppose the war in Iran. José Manuel Corrales, a professor of economics and international relations at the European University in Madrid, said the Spanish prime minister’s stance is savvy because the U.S. president tends to back down when countries respond to Washington by remaining firm.

“It’s worked out for Canada and México, and obviously for China,” he said. “And, politically, it’s definitely working out for Spain’s government, which is now being hailed for standing up to Trump and firmly saying no to this war.”

Regardless of whether Washington cuts trade relations with Madrid, Spain’s economy is already being affected by the instability caused by the U.S. attack on Iran. Corrales said Spain’s booming economy — which grew by 2.8 percent in 2025, and is projected to expand by over 2 percent this year — could be undermined by surging inflation if the war lasts long.

“The truth is that we may be facing a crisis with significant repercussions,” he said. “This latest war is already going to have consequences for the American economy, but the Trump administration is also going to have to pay for the damage it’s wrought on the global economy sooner or later.”