Donald Trump just saved Mette Frederiksen from electoral oblivion

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has one person to thank for rescuing her from a looming political abyss: U.S. President Donald Trump.

Frederiksen’s party has seen a dramatic surge in poll ratings through January — just months after awful results in last year’s local elections — as it launched a vehement defense of Denmark’s sovereignty against Trump’s aggressive threats to annex Greenland.

“After a long time, they have finally drawn a clear line instead of appearing submissive,” said Per Clausen, a left-wing Danish MEP from the opposition Enhedslisten party, who credited the change in approach with driving a leap in voter support.

The phenomenon is not unique to Denmark. In elections from Canada to Australia, standing up to Trump has become electoral rocket fuel, as leaders who frame themselves as defenders of national sovereignty and liberal democracy are being rewarded by voters eager for pushback against the U.S. president.

Frederiksen’s center-left party — which governs in a coalition with the center-right Moderates and Venstre parties — netted 22.7 percent of the vote and 41 parliament seats in a new poll by Megafon, a reputable Danish consultancy, conducted from Jan. 20 to 22 among 1,012 Danes. That’s a sharp upswing from the last poll by Megafon in early December, which showed Frederiksen’s party winning just 32 seats.

The Social Democrats currently hold 50 seats out of 179, and the latest polls show that it would still be the largest party in parliament with 41 seats, putting them back in pole position to lead coalition talks, but leaving them dependent on partners to maintain power.

The uptick in support is even more notable given that the Social Democrats suffered a terrible result in municipal elections in November, which saw Frederiksen’s party lose Copenhagen, a symbolically important seat, for the first time in 100 years.

The Moderates, led by Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, nearly tripled its vote share in the poll from 2.2 percent to 6.4 percent, equal to about 12 seats. Another poll published Monday by the research institute Voxmeter for Danish news agency Ritzau showed support for Frederiksen’s Cabinet at 40.9 percent, the highest in two years. If an election were held now, the coalition would be forecast to win 73 seats.

That would still leave them 17 seats short of the 90 needed for a majority and needing to negotiate with other parties — but is far from what just months ago looked like an imminent wipeout.

Rally around the flag

Since then, the world — and Danish politics — has changed dramatically. Trump said in early January that he would seize Greenland, a self-ruling Danish territory in the Arctic, by any means necessary, an oft-repeated threat that took on new menace after the American capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Frederiksen, who has been in power since 2019, has mounted a spirited diplomatic defense of the Arctic island, successfully repelling Trump’s advances for now.

And, according to the polls, Danes have rallied around her.

“There isn’t really another explanation for it,” said Anne Rasmussen, a political science professor at King’s College London and the University of Copenhagen, referring to the surge in support. “It’s first and foremost Greenland.”

Rasmussen said the last time Denmark experienced such a wave of solidarity with its government was during the Covid pandemic, adding that national crises tend to favor incumbents.

“I do think many Danes are currently moving towards the Social Democrats because the party is delivering on its core priorities … while also demonstrating strong leadership when even the most powerful man in the world challenges [Danish] sovereignty,” said Danish MEP Christel Schaldemose, who hails from Frederiksen’s Social Democrats party.

Frederiksen’s government also reached an agreement this week with left-wing parties to hand out €600 million in tax-free food vouchers to more than 2 million people hit by rising food prices.

Tick tock

The question now is whether Frederiksen will call an election anytime soon to capitalize on her political gains. Under Danish electoral law, the vote must be held before Nov. 1.

Frederiksen has gambled with an early election before, holding a snap vote in 2022 amid falling support, which saw her snag victory.

“It might look like a little bit too instrumental to do it [call an election] in the middle of the biggest foreign policy crisis for Denmark and the world order … but it’s probably very likely that it will come before the summer,” Rasmussen said. “She will still wait a little bit, but I don’t think she will wait that long.”

Frederiksen cut an influential figure in Brussels, especially during Denmark’s presidency of the Council of the EU in 2025, but had faltered domestically thanks to missteps ranging from her decision to cull Denmark’s entire population of 17 million minks to prevent the spread of Covid-19, to the dubious jailing of a former intelligence chief, providing an electoral opportunity for the opposition.

The leader of Denmark’s right-wing Danish People’s Party, Morten Messerschmidt, told POLITICO that he would welcome earlier elections, calling them “a valuable opportunity” for the country to form a new government.

Frederiksen, whose approval rating plummeted from 79 percent in 2020 to 34 percent in a December YouGov poll, rejected speculation that she would resign following the disastrous local elections in November.

“They really had a bad election,” Rasmussen said, but added the government has since moved to address voters’ concerns on the cost of living with the food voucher scheme.

That’s important because Frederiksen’s Greenland boost in the polls won’t last forever.

“I don’t think it’s just going to sort of disappear overnight, but you can imagine that as some of the national issues again become more prominent on the agenda, people are going to base their judgments more on them when they think about who to vote for,” Rasmussen said.

Rune Stubager, a professor of political science at the University of Aarhus, agreed that the Greenland crisis had caused “kind of a rallying effect,” but added “once the pressure subsides, I would, however, expect the government to drop again as attention would then turn to domestic issues.”

Stine Bosse, a Danish MEP and member of the Moderates, said Frederiksen and the government’s handling of transatlantic tensions over Greenland would stand them in good stead.

“This is probably the most difficult foreign policy situation Denmark has faced in many years, and the government has handled it in the best possible way,” said Bosse. “They have kept a cool head, a warm heart, and demonstrated a high level of professionalism.”