Warsaw gloats, Berlin balks as EU budget fight turns national

BRUSSELS — The ink is barely dry on the European Commission’s €1.8 trillion post-2027 budget proposal and the national scorekeeping has already begun.

Poland emerged as the undisputed winner under the so-called National and Regional Partnership Plans — a new €865 billion pot that merges agricultural, regional and migration funds, and makes up the largest chunk of the new budget plans.

Warsaw is set to receive €123.3 billion from this pot, over €30 billion more than the next largest beneficiary, France.

The political capital wasn’t lost on Poland’s center-right government.

Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin, who is himself Polish, appeared in a grinning selfie video outside the Commission headquarters with European Affairs Minister Adam Szłapka Thursday night, hailing what he called the “biggest, most ambitious EU budget in history” and declaring that “Poland will be its biggest beneficiary.”

Szłapka, flanked by the Berlaymont’s glass façade, took a dig at the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) opposition, saying that under PiS rule, “Poland’s cohesion money was blocked,” a reference to pandemic recovery funds that were frozen over issues related to the rule of law.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk, facing growing strain from a fragmented coalition at home, is seizing on the EU budget as proof that his government can deliver. His camp has been quick to claim credit for unblocking funds and restoring Poland’s image in Brussels after years of PiS-inflicted bruises.

However, Poland was already by far the biggest beneficiary of the EU’s agricultural and regional payments under the last EU budget, which was signed off by the PiS government in 2021. Between 2021 and 2027, Poland was allocated around €112 billion at current prices.  

Regional payments, which are aimed at narrowing the gap between richer and poorer areas in Europe, are allocated on the basis of national and regional levels of development. The basic principle is that poorer countries and regions get a bigger share of the money.

Agricultural payments are largely awarded based on the area of farmland under cultivation, favouring countries with large agricultural sectors.

In contrast to the cheers in Warsaw, there were jeers in Budapest as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán denounced the next EU budget as a “Ukrainian bailout.” “What’s left? Less than ever. I will never support this,” Orbán said in an interview posted on his X account.

Not everyone’s a winner

Germany also came out swinging against the proposal, calling the budget’s overall size “unacceptable” at a time of fiscal tightening. 

“We must remain absolutely proportionate when it comes to finances,” Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said Thursday. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s spokesperson added that Berlin would “not be able to accept” the plan as it stands.

Germany, set to receive €68.4 billion under the national and regional plans, is the biggest net contributor to the current EU budget. In 2023 Berlin paid in €33.8 billion and got €14 billion back, effectively recouping just 41 cents for every euro contributed.

That contrast is expected to feature prominently when countries start wrangling over the budget’s fine print, especially as the new allocations are based on a mix of historical shares, economic disparities and shifting policy priorities.

Beyond the raw totals, the Commission’s plans also indicate whom Brussels trusts to handle sensitive tasks. Germany, Greece and Spain top the allocations for migration, security and border management, with €4.1 billion, €3.5 billion and €3 billion respectively. Poland, with €1.9 billion, is the top recipient in Eastern Europe.

Concerns are mounting, meanwhile, over the plan to integrate agricultural funds into broader national programs. 

The proposed budget sees agriculture spending shrink nominally by over 20 percent, from €386.6 billion in the current budget to €300 billion in the next, prompting farmers’ groups across Europe to denounce the new structure as a “betrayal.” 

Although Serafin insisted direct payments to farmers would remain stable, many fear inflation will effectively gut the value of this support.

The budget proposal “is a good starting point for an exchange of views,” Poland’s Szłapka said Friday, softening previous criticism toward the Commission’s plans to reform the budget.

“Cohesion and agriculture need to remain strong and need to be adequately funded,” he added during a meeting of Europe ministers in Brussels.

Graphics by Lucia Mackenzie. This story has been updated.